NVIDIA Funds OpenAI, OpenAI Buys NVIDIA Chips: What the Circular Deal Means for NVDA Stock

Below are the specific parameters for the NVIDIA trade idea. The ticker for trading via RoboForex MobileTrader and MT5 on RoboForex is NVDA.

NVIDIA is back at the centre of investor attention, this time over its possible role in funding a large AI data centre for OpenAI.

On 26 July 2026, The Wall Street Journal reported that NVIDIA is in talks to provide a financial guarantee of 250 billion USD for a major data centre in southern Ohio. The project, with capacity of up to 10 GW, is being developed by SB Energy, the energy arm of SoftBank, and OpenAI is expected to be the anchor tenant. Together with the installed accelerators, the total cost of the site could exceed 500 billion USD. The first phase of roughly 800 MW is scheduled for 2028. At that scale, the site could become one of the largest AI data centres in the world.

These are talks at this stage. No final agreements have been announced, and NVIDIA, OpenAI, and the US Department of Commerce had not commented at the time of publication. The figures of 250 billion and 350 billion USD should therefore be treated as amounts under discussion rather than commitments NVIDIA has already accepted.

In simplified form, the arrangement between NVIDIA and OpenAI works like this:

The complication sits with OpenAI's finances. Despite a high business valuation and rapid growth, the company remains unprofitable and holds no investment grade credit rating. For lenders, that raises the risk of financing a capital intensive project over many years. Without additional support, they may demand a higher interest rate, a larger share of the borrower's own capital, or extra guarantees.

NVIDIA would step in as a financial backstop, providing a guarantee of up to 250 billion USD covering the data centre lease and the debt financing of its construction. The guarantee would exclude the NVIDIA accelerators installed at the site. Financing for OpenAI's purchases of NVIDIA accelerators, worth up to 350 billion USD, is being discussed separately.

NVIDIA could therefore hold four roles at once: equipment supplier, investor in OpenAI, guarantor of the obligations tied to the project, and a source of financing for OpenAI's purchases of NVIDIA hardware. Financial guarantees combined with possible funding for purchases of its own products have put market participants on alert, since the arrangement increasingly resembles circular financing.

The circular character comes from the way capital moves:

On its own, this breaks no accounting rules. Customer financing is widely used in aviation, automotive, industrial, and telecom markets. A supplier helps a client fund an equipment purchase because it lifts sales and speeds up the development of the market. The risk appears when it becomes hard to judge how much demand stands on its own and how much of it is supported by the supplier's own money.

For NVIDIA, the core exposure is that the company starts absorbing part of its customers' financial risk. If OpenAI cannot meet the obligations tied to the project, the guarantees provided could turn into real costs for NVIDIA. The arrangement also reduces the transparency of demand. When NVIDIA helps fund purchases of its own accelerators, it becomes harder to establish how much of the current sales volume would remain without that financial support. Should data centre construction run ahead of genuine demand for computing power, NVIDIA could face slower new orders and losses on previously issued guarantees and investments at the same time.

NVIDIA shares fell 5% on 27 July once the reports appeared. What put investors on guard is the steady widening of the company's role, from accelerator supplier to a major participant in financing artificial intelligence infrastructure. Through this deal, NVIDIA would take on part of the credit risk attached to OpenAI and to the project itself. If OpenAI struggles to meet long term lease obligations, or if servicing the related debt runs into trouble, the guarantee NVIDIA has provided could translate into real financial losses.

The scale of the potential guarantee stands out against NVIDIA's balance sheet. As of Q1 of fiscal year 2027, which ended on 26 April 2026, the company held:

A potential guarantee of 250 billion USD is almost five times NVIDIA's cash and debt securities. Even counting the portfolio of marketable shares, it exceeds the company's liquid financial assets by more than three times. The guarantee could be issued in stages, through dedicated financial structures, and only as construction progresses. Its maximum size is still too large to set aside.

A second consideration is the quality and independence of demand. When a client buys accelerators without financial support from NVIDIA, the order reflects a real need for computing power more directly. NVIDIA, however, is investing more actively in its customers and infrastructure operators, providing financial guarantees, discussing funding for purchases of its own accelerators, and in some agreements guaranteeing the buyback of unused computing capacity. That makes it harder to establish which share of demand forms independently and which is supported by NVIDIA's own capital.

What unsettled investors was the scale of the potential obligations and the further expansion of NVIDIA's role in financing its own customers. The market has priced in the possibility that part of future accelerator demand will rest on NVIDIA's capital, and that weak returns on the infrastructure could leave the company facing lower new orders alongside losses on investments and guarantees. This increase in financial exposure became one of the main reasons for the sell-off after the news.

The reason is straightforward: building AI infrastructure has become very expensive. A modern AI data centre needs chips, power plants, cooling, land, transformers, network connections, server racks, storage systems, and enormous credit lines. Even large technology companies are having to raise capital spending sharply.

For younger AI companies the position is harder still. They need powerful computing, and they often lack sufficient capital, a credit rating, and stable cash flow. Without outside support, such companies cannot build infrastructure quickly or purchase NVIDIA accelerators.

NVIDIA therefore acts as a strategic sponsor of the AI ecosystem. The company effectively helps the market build the infrastructure that will then consume its products. It is an aggressive strategy with a clear logic behind it. NVIDIA has several reasons to operate this way:

For NVIDIA, this is a way to use its leadership in accelerators to strengthen its influence across the whole of AI infrastructure.

The central exposure is that NVIDIA may absorb too large a share of the financial risk of the AI boom. If demand for AI computing keeps growing quickly, the strategy can pay off. NVIDIA would sell more hardware, gain additional benefit from the build-out of cloud infrastructure, and reinforce its market position.

If demand comes in below expectations, the picture changes. NVIDIA's customers could run into difficulties paying for data centres, servicing debt, and filling computing capacity. In that case, financial guarantees, investments, and credit support can turn from a demand tool into a source of direct losses for NVIDIA.

There is a further consideration in how the market values the company. NVIDIA is currently treated as one of the main beneficiaries of the AI cycle, so any sign of slowing demand, or of sales leaning more heavily on customer financing, could compress the valuation premium and put pressure on its multiples.

The emerging secondary market for computing capacity raises a separate question. Meta is already considering leasing part of its AI infrastructure to external clients, and July brought reports of talks with Anthropic on a deal worth up to 10 billion USD. If Meta, xAI, and other large accelerator owners start supplying their capacity to third parties more actively, the same fleet of hardware can serve more end users. That would raise the utilisation of installed infrastructure and, over time, slow the market's need for new accelerators.

For NVIDIA, that scenario carries the risk of a visible slowdown in demand for new accelerators, which could lead to slower revenue growth, sharper price competition, lower margins, and a reset of elevated market expectations. Pressure on the multiples could then produce a substantial downward revaluation of the stock.

As of July 2026, Barchart analyst ratings for NVDA show a strong tilt toward buying: 46 of the 47 analysts tracked rate NVDA a Buy, and only one rates it a Sell. Worth noting that this consensus was largely formed before the reports on the OpenAI guarantee, and the average target price sits well above the current market price.

On the daily timeframe, NVIDIA shares sit in an important technical zone where several significant levels and indicators come together. The next directional move depends largely on how the price reacts to 195 USD.

The 195 USD level coincides with the 200-period Moving Average. A breakdown through it would signal that the uptrend may be finishing and that a deep correction or a downtrend is starting. The same level also coincides with an ascending trend line, and a break of that line would signal the end of the upward move. Support sits at 195 USD as well, so a breakdown there would reinforce bearish sentiment and could open room for a further decline.

The Stochastic indicator adds a second signal. It is near overbought territory with its lines crossing downward, which raises the probability of a price decline.

Judging by how market participants reacted, the news around the possible NVIDIA and OpenAI deal supports bearish sentiment in NVIDIA shares.

The trade idea for NVDA is therefore to place a sell order on a breakdown of support at 195 USD. The target for the decline is support at 150 USD.

Below is a sample trading strategy for NVDA shares. This example is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should assess their own risk tolerance independently.

A risk/reward ratio of 1:2.25 sits in the acceptable range for position trading. Keep in mind that markets are volatile: NVDA shares can move both for and against an open position.

On its own, a possible guarantee for OpenAI is not yet sufficient grounds for selling NVIDIA shares. The deal has not been signed, and obligations of 250 billion USD do not mean immediate spending of that amount. The probability of a decline in the share price has nevertheless risen noticeably.

NVIDIA is tying its sales growth ever more closely to financial support for its own customers. Should AI demand begin to slow, the company could face lower orders, losses on investments and guarantees, and pressure on margins at the same time. The developing market for leasing already installed AI capacity adds a second consideration. If Meta, xAI, and other owners of large clusters start renting them out more actively to third parties, the need for new NVIDIA accelerators could grow far more slowly.

NVIDIA shares therefore carry more risk than they did before this news. Investors sitting on large gains have a reasonable case for taking partial profits, and buying aggressively into the current decline looks premature. For traders, the actionable level is 195 USD: a confirmed breakdown activates the short scenario toward 150 USD, while a hold above it keeps the existing uptrend in place and cancels the setup.