Market Week Ahead (September 21 – 25): Trump Xi Summit Tests the Global Growth Outlook
After a week of decisions from the world's largest central banks, the calendar turns quieter, and attention moves to how fast the global economy is growing. The Trump Xi summit on Thursday is the main event: Donald Trump is expected to host Xi Jinping in Washington, and anything the two leaders say about trade, export restrictions and economic cooperation will shape risk appetite for the rest of September.
The data around it tests the same question from three sides. Flash PMIs from Germany and the UK on Wednesday give the first read on business activity in September, and US durable goods orders on Friday show how confidently American companies keep investing. This issue covers the DE 40, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and the US 500.
In Brief
- Germany Manufacturing PMI (Wednesday, September 23): the flash reading is seen at 53.6 after 54.3, still well above the 50 line that separates growth from contraction.
- UK Manufacturing and Services PMI (Wednesday, September 23): manufacturing is expected unchanged at 51.7 and services at 52.6 after 52.5, the first full read on the UK economy since the Bank of England's September meeting.
- Trump Xi Summit (Thursday, September 24): the Trump Xi summit could change how investors see risk assets and the outlook for global trade.
- US Durable Goods Orders (Friday, September 25): 0.9% month on month after 1.1%, one of the main gauges of business investment in the US.
Where the Market Stands Going Into the Week
With the central bank meetings behind it, the market is back to a simpler question: is the global economy holding its pace? This week's calendar answers it in order. European business surveys come first on Wednesday, the Trump Xi summit on Thursday sets the tone for global trade, and US durable goods orders on Friday close the week with a read on corporate investment.
The Trump Xi summit is the event with the widest reach. A constructive meeting would support risk assets and the currencies most tied to China's economy, with the Australian dollar first among them, and would help industrial metals such as iron ore and copper. A meeting that ends without visible progress would widen the pressure on commodity currencies and on commodity markets.
Going into the week, the charts lean cautious. GBP/USD has dropped to 1.3393 and sits on the lower boundary of its long-term rising channel. AUD/USD trades around 0.7124, below its middle Bollinger band after pulling back from its late-August highs. The DE 40 is consolidating near 25330 after a correction, while the US 500 has recovered to around 7667 and is testing its middle band. Each release this week will show whether these pullbacks deepen or give way to recovery.
Key Events of the Week
| Date | Event | Instruments | Importance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed, Sep 23 | Germany Manufacturing PMI (flash) | DE 40, EUR/USD, German Bunds | ●● Medium |
| Wed, Sep 23 | UK Manufacturing and Services PMI (flash) | GBP/USD, FTSE 100, UK gilts | ●● Medium |
| Thu, Sep 24 | Trump Xi Summit | AUD/USD, Iron Ore, Copper | ●●● High |
| Fri, Sep 25 | US Durable Goods Orders | US 500, US Treasuries, USD Index | ●● Medium |
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23
Sep
Manufacturing PMI, Flash, Forecast
53.6
Previous
54.3
Why It Matters
The flash PMI is one of the fastest indicators of the state of the German economy. After several months of gradual recovery, this reading shows whether industry is still growing steadily or whether the positive momentum is starting to fade. Germany is the largest economy in the euro area, so any change in its business activity feeds quickly into European stocks and into expectations for the region's economy.
Market Reaction
A reading that holds well above 50 would support the DE 40 and the euro and confirm that the industrial recovery continues. A weak PMI would widen concerns about a slowdown in the euro area, lower European bond yields and bring demand for safe-haven assets back.
Market Sentiment
The consensus stays moderately positive. We expect the index to stay above 50 and confirm that industry keeps recovering. On the chart, the DE 40 trades around 25330, consolidating after its recent correction. Price sits between the middle and lower Bollinger bands, with the middle band still pointing down. MACD is in negative territory and its histogram is still deepening, so the bearish impulse has not faded yet. The stochastic has turned up from oversold and is now in the middle of its range, a sign that buyers are trying to take back the initiative. A move above 25580 would confirm the recovery and open the way to 26200. A drop below 25280 would put sellers back in control.
Key Levels and Trade Parameters — DE 40
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Resistance | 25580 / 26200 |
| Support | 25280 |
| Entry, Buy Stop | 25580 |
| Stop loss | 25280 |
| Take profit | 26200 |
| Risk to reward | 1:2.1 |
23
Sep
Manufacturing PMI, Flash, Forecast
51.7
Previous
51.7
Services PMI, Flash, Forecast
52.6
Previous
52.5
Why It Matters
These PMIs are the first full assessment of the UK economy since the Bank of England's September meeting. Manufacturing is still under pressure from high interest rates, while services keep supporting economic activity. The report shows whether the economy is holding up and whether businesses are changing their expectations for the coming months.
Market Reaction
Strong readings would give the pound a reason to recover and lift UK government bond yields. Weak data would confirm the current bearish mood around sterling and add to the pressure on GBP/USD, while the FTSE 100 would likely take a softer pound better than the currency does.
Market Sentiment
Sentiment toward the pound stays cautious after the recent correction. Our consensus assumes moderate business activity, and we will be looking for confirmation that the UK economy is holding up as well after the Bank of England's September meeting. On the chart, GBP/USD trades around 1.3393, having dropped to the lower boundary of its long-term ascending channel. Price sits below the middle Bollinger band and remains under pressure after the sharp fall of recent sessions. MACD has moved into negative territory and its histogram keeps widening downward, confirming a stronger bearish impulse. The stochastic stays in oversold territory, though its decline has started to slow, a warning that short-term bounces are possible. A move below 1.3330 would confirm the decline continuing toward 1.3240. A return above 1.3450 would be the first sign of the downward pressure easing.
Key Levels and Trade Parameters — GBP/USD
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Resistance | 1.3450 |
| Support | 1.3330 / 1.3240 |
| Entry, Sell Stop | 1.3330 |
| Stop loss | 1.3450 |
| Take profit | 1.3240 |
| Risk to reward | 1:0.8 |
24
Sep
Why It Matters
Talks between the leaders of the US and China could be the main geopolitical event of the week. We will watch closely for statements on trade relations, export restrictions and the outlook for economic cooperation between the world's two largest economies. Any sign of lower tension could improve sentiment toward risk assets and support commodity markets.
Market Reaction
Signals that trade disagreements are easing would support the Australian dollar, one of the currencies most sensitive to China's economy, and lift iron ore and copper. If the talks end without tangible progress, the pressure on commodity currencies and commodity markets could widen.
Market Sentiment
Here we are cautiously optimistic and expect a constructive dialogue between Washington and Beijing. On the chart, AUD/USD trades around 0.7124 and stays below the middle Bollinger band after a steady pullback from its late-August highs. MACD holds just above zero, but its histogram keeps shrinking as the upward impulse gradually fades. The stochastic is turning up out of oversold, which points to the chance of a short-term correction higher, though the underlying impulse stays weak. A move below 0.7100 would confirm the decline continuing toward 0.7000. A return above 0.7175 would signal demand recovering.
Key Levels and Trade Parameters — AUD/USD
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Resistance | 0.7175 |
| Support | 0.7100 / 0.7000 |
| Entry, Sell Stop | 0.7100 |
| Stop loss | 0.7175 |
| Take profit | 0.7000 |
| Risk to reward | 1:1.3 |
25
Sep
Durable Goods Orders, Forecast (m/m)
0.9%
Previous
1.1%
Why It Matters
Durable goods orders reflect how much American companies are investing and remain one of the most important indicators for US industry. After the Fed's September meeting, this report helps show whether the world's largest economy keeps enough strength and how confidently businesses continue to invest in growth.
Market Reaction
A strong report would confirm that the US economy is holding up, support the dollar and Treasury yields, and help US stock indices extend their recovery. A weaker figure could speed up profit-taking and bring back a more careful view of the growth outlook.
Market Sentiment
We expect orders to grow at a moderately slower pace after a strong previous month. On the chart, the US 500 trades around 7667 and holds near the middle Bollinger band after recovering from local lows. The index is trying to resume its advance, though the impulse stays moderate. MACD has eased to just below zero, a sign the bullish impulse has faded. The stochastic has turned up and is climbing steadily from the middle of its range, which points to short-term demand returning. A move above 7695 would confirm a new wave of growth toward 7805. A drop below the 7580 support would widen the risk of the correction resuming.
Key Levels and Trade Parameters — US 500
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Resistance | 7695 / 7805 |
| Support | 7580 |
| Entry, Buy Stop | 7695 |
| Stop loss | 7580 |
| Take profit | 7805 |
| Risk to reward | 1:1.0 |
Track the forecast and the actual figures for each release, since the gap between consensus and the outcome is what tends to move prices the most. Learn more about how to read the economic calendar and trade the news.
Conclusion
The week tests the strength of the global economy from three angles. Flash PMIs on Wednesday come first: a German reading that holds well above 50 gives the DE 40 a reason to clear 25580 toward 26200, while weak UK data would take GBP/USD through 1.3330 toward 1.3240.
Thursday's Trump Xi summit carries the most weight for commodity currencies. Visible progress on trade would support the Australian dollar and lift AUD/USD back above 0.7175, and a meeting without results would open the way below 0.7100 toward 0.7000. US durable goods orders on Friday then decide whether the US 500 extends its recovery above 7695 toward 7805 or slips back under 7580.
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