August closed on a firm note for US stocks, carried by the first corporate reports of the season. Attention now swings back to the macro calendar, and the Non-Farm Payrolls forecast on Friday is what this week comes down to. Before it, the United States reports JOLTS job openings and the ISM Manufacturing PMI on Tuesday, Australia publishes second-quarter GDP on Wednesday, and the Bank of Canada announces its rate decision the same day.
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18 min
Last week returned geopolitics to market pricing. Developments in the Middle East periodically added a risk premium to energy prices, although tension eased by Friday. Another headline event was the coordinated action by Japan and the United States in support of the yen, after which USD/JPY dropped sharply away from its 40-year high. At the same time, the US labour market delivered fresh signs of cooling: July Non-Farm Payrolls came in below expectations and earlier readings were revised down, which widened expectations for a softer Fed policy path.
15 min
The final week of July delivered high volatility and a clear change of drivers. Markets priced in several factors at once: renewed tension in the Middle East, the start of the US corporate earnings season and firm rhetoric from the Federal Reserve, a combination that pushed stock indices into a correction. The currency market added a second source of movement. The Japanese yen strengthened sharply on the likelihood of official intervention, which amplified swings in USD/JPY and forced a broad reassessment of dollar positions.
12 min
Oil prices climbed last week as tensions around the Middle East intensified, with renewed friction near the Strait of Hormuz adding an extra risk premium to commodity markets and lifting volatility across global assets. At the same time, the start of the US corporate earnings season put pressure on stock indices, as investors began locking in profits after the second-quarter rally. The US dollar has held steady through this backdrop, and major currency pairs remain confined to familiar ranges. The week ahead brings the Federal Reserve's rate decision, a fresh batch of Japanese data, the Bank of England's meeting and a heavy block of US macro releases, giving traders plenty to react to across FX, stocks and bonds.
13 min
Markets enter the final week of June under elevated uncertainty, shaped by a hawkish Fed and renewed volatility in oil. The Fed held rates at 3.75% last week, but Chair Warsh's commentary and the updated projections sent a clear message: rates will stay restrictive for as long as the inflation outlook demands. Oil added its own layer of turbulence, first falling sharply on reports of a potential US-Iran deal, then recovering as news of a renewed Ormuz Strait closure reignited supply concerns. In this article we have prepared an analysis of the week's key data releases: from Canada's CPI on Monday to the final US GDP and Core PCE on Thursday, with Australia's inflation and the Fed's annual bank stress tests in between. Inside, you'll find technical reference points, key price levels and the latest market sentiment across leading assets.