Oil markets stabilised at the end of last week as Middle East tensions eased and traders unwound much of the geopolitical premium that had supported Brent through the first half of June. With conflict risk fading from prices, attention has returned to macro fundamentals: the supply-demand balance, the global growth outlook and OPEC+ strategy. The calendar is heavy with US labour data: JOLTS on Tuesday and Non-Farm Payrolls on Thursday, the latter brought forward from its usual Friday slot for the US Independence Day holiday.
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13 min
Markets enter the final week of June under elevated uncertainty, shaped by a hawkish Fed and renewed volatility in oil. The Fed held rates at 3.75% last week, but Chair Warsh's commentary and the updated projections sent a clear message: rates will stay restrictive for as long as the inflation outlook demands. Oil added its own layer of turbulence, first falling sharply on reports of a potential US-Iran deal, then recovering as news of a renewed Ormuz Strait closure reignited supply concerns. In this article we have prepared an analysis of the week's key data releases: from Canada's CPI on Monday to the final US GDP and Core PCE on Thursday, with Australia's inflation and the Fed's annual bank stress tests in between. Inside, you'll find technical reference points, key price levels and the latest market sentiment across leading assets.
14 min
BoJ rate decision on Tuesday, the Fed and updated FOMC projections on Wednesday, the Bank of England on Thursday. What each could mean for USD/JPY, EUR/USD, US 500 and GBP/USD.
13 min
Investor attention this week centres on US inflation, the ECB's rate decision, and an assessment of global economic momentum. Last Friday's jobs report reaffirmed labour market resilience, with 172,000 positions added against a forecast of 85,000, pushing back expectations of a near-term Fed rate cut. In this article we have prepared an analysis of the week's key events: from Tuesday's China trade balance to Friday's UK GDP, with Wednesday's CPI release at the centre of it all, a reading that will define the direction for the dollar and equity markets. Inside, you'll find technical analysis, key price levels and the latest market sentiment across major assets.
14 min
Investor attention this week centres on Eurozone inflation, the state of the Australian economy and, above all, the US labour market. The dollar retains solid support as markets price in the Fed holding rates steady through year-end, with an additional hike remaining on the table if inflation stays firm and labour market conditions hold up. […]
13 min
PCE inflation on Wednesday, the RBNZ decision and Australia CPI, plus oil inventories. What each release could mean for EUR/USD, Gold, NZD/USD and Brent.