Last week showed that markets are gradually moving past individual geopolitical headlines. Despite another exchange of strikes in the Middle East and nerves around the Strait of Hormuz, the oil sector spent most of the week in a narrow range. Investors are increasingly weighing the actual probability of supply disruption rather than the statements themselves, and that probability remains low for now.
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15 min
The past week ended without fresh signals from the Federal Reserve. Minutes from the June meeting confirmed the regulator's cautious stance: most Fed officials still consider it premature to discuss rate cuts and want to see more convincing evidence that inflation is slowing. The message supported the dollar and led the market to fully abandon expectations of rapid policy easing.
16 min
Five events will drive currencies, indices and oil this week, and each one comes with a clear trading scenario. SpaceX joins the Nasdaq-100 on Tuesday, the FOMC minutes land on Wednesday, China reports inflation on Thursday, Canada publishes jobs data on Friday, and the US-Iran talks keep the oil market on alert every single day. Below you will find the full calendar, the levels that matter for the S&P 500, EUR/USD, Brent, AUD/USD and CAD/JPY, and a ready-made plan for every release, so you are informed in advance what can happen and how to act when the numbers hit the screen.
16 min
Oil markets stabilised at the end of last week as Middle East tensions eased and traders unwound much of the geopolitical premium that had supported Brent through the first half of June. With conflict risk fading from prices, attention has returned to macro fundamentals: the supply-demand balance, the global growth outlook and OPEC+ strategy. The calendar is heavy with US labour data: JOLTS on Tuesday and Non-Farm Payrolls on Thursday, the latter brought forward from its usual Friday slot for the US Independence Day holiday.
13 min
Markets enter the final week of June under elevated uncertainty, shaped by a hawkish Fed and renewed volatility in oil. The Fed held rates at 3.75% last week, but Chair Warsh's commentary and the updated projections sent a clear message: rates will stay restrictive for as long as the inflation outlook demands. Oil added its own layer of turbulence, first falling sharply on reports of a potential US-Iran deal, then recovering as news of a renewed Ormuz Strait closure reignited supply concerns. In this article we have prepared an analysis of the week's key data releases: from Canada's CPI on Monday to the final US GDP and Core PCE on Thursday, with Australia's inflation and the Fed's annual bank stress tests in between. Inside, you'll find technical reference points, key price levels and the latest market sentiment across leading assets.
14 min
BoJ rate decision on Tuesday, the Fed and updated FOMC projections on Wednesday, the Bank of England on Thursday. What each could mean for USD/JPY, EUR/USD, US 500 and GBP/USD.
13 min
Investor attention this week centres on US inflation, the ECB's rate decision, and an assessment of global economic momentum. Last Friday's jobs report reaffirmed labour market resilience, with 172,000 positions added against a forecast of 85,000, pushing back expectations of a near-term Fed rate cut. In this article we have prepared an analysis of the week's key events: from Tuesday's China trade balance to Friday's UK GDP, with Wednesday's CPI release at the centre of it all, a reading that will define the direction for the dollar and equity markets. Inside, you'll find technical analysis, key price levels and the latest market sentiment across major assets.
14 min
Investor attention this week centres on Eurozone inflation, the state of the Australian economy and, above all, the US labour market. The dollar retains solid support as markets price in the Fed holding rates steady through year-end, with an additional hike remaining on the table if inflation stays firm and labour market conditions hold up. […]
13 min
PCE inflation on Wednesday, the RBNZ decision and Australia CPI, plus oil inventories. What each release could mean for EUR/USD, Gold, NZD/USD and Brent.