The first week of September settled nothing. The US labour market report showed employment holding up while the pace of hiring slows, which left the Fed's next step exactly where it was. The dollar stayed strong and stock indices finished the week without a clear idea. This week hands the market two answers instead: the […]
All posts
16 min
August closed on a firm note for US stocks, carried by the first corporate reports of the season. Attention now swings back to the macro calendar, and the Non-Farm Payrolls forecast on Friday is what this week comes down to. Before it, the United States reports JOLTS job openings and the ISM Manufacturing PMI on […]
16 min
The dollar's direction this week comes down to one release. Core PCE, the inflation gauge the Fed watches most closely, arrives on Wednesday alongside the second estimate of Q2 GDP. Economists expect the monthly figure to accelerate to 0.3% after June's reading of just 0.1%, and that gap is what markets will trade. Three more […]
15 min
Another August week passed relatively calmly after the series of strong moves at the start of the month. Tension in the Middle East made itself felt again, though everything paused by the end of the week, which reduced the geopolitical premium in oil prices. At the same time investors kept assessing the condition of the […]
18 min
Last week returned geopolitics to market pricing. Developments in the Middle East periodically added a risk premium to energy prices, although tension eased by Friday. Another headline event was the coordinated action by Japan and the United States in support of the yen, after which USD/JPY dropped sharply away from its 40-year high. At the […]
15 min
The final week of July delivered high volatility and a clear change of drivers. Markets priced in several factors at once: renewed tension in the Middle East, the start of the US corporate earnings season and firm rhetoric from the Federal Reserve, a combination that pushed stock indices into a correction. The currency market added […]
12 min
Oil prices climbed last week as tensions around the Middle East intensified, with renewed friction near the Strait of Hormuz adding an extra risk premium to commodity markets and lifting volatility across global assets. At the same time, the start of the US corporate earnings season put pressure on stock indices, as investors began locking […]
13 min
Last week showed that markets are gradually moving past individual geopolitical headlines. Despite another exchange of strikes in the Middle East and nerves around the Strait of Hormuz, the oil sector spent most of the week in a narrow range. Investors are increasingly weighing the actual probability of supply disruption rather than the statements themselves, […]
15 min
The past week ended without fresh signals from the Federal Reserve. Minutes from the June meeting confirmed the regulator's cautious stance: most Fed officials still consider it premature to discuss rate cuts and want to see more convincing evidence that inflation is slowing. The message supported the dollar and led the market to fully abandon […]
16 min
Five events will drive currencies, indices and oil this week, and each one comes with a clear trading scenario. SpaceX joins the Nasdaq-100 on Tuesday, the FOMC minutes land on Wednesday, China reports inflation on Thursday, Canada publishes jobs data on Friday, and the US-Iran talks keep the oil market on alert every single day. […]
16 min
Oil markets stabilised at the end of last week as Middle East tensions eased and traders unwound much of the geopolitical premium that had supported Brent through the first half of June. With conflict risk fading from prices, attention has returned to macro fundamentals: the supply-demand balance, the global growth outlook and OPEC+ strategy. The […]
13 min
Markets enter the final week of June under elevated uncertainty, shaped by a hawkish Fed and renewed volatility in oil. The Fed held rates at 3.75% last week, but Chair Warsh's commentary and the updated projections sent a clear message: rates will stay restrictive for as long as the inflation outlook demands. Oil added its […]
14 min
Investor attention this week centres on central bank decisions, with the Fed's Wednesday meeting and updated FOMC projections carrying the most weight for markets. The previous week brought the first signs of profit-taking on US equities, partly driven by capital reallocation around the SpaceX IPO, while USD/JPY extended its advance to multi-year highs and drew […]
13 min
Investor attention this week centres on US inflation, the ECB's rate decision, and an assessment of global economic momentum. Last Friday's jobs report reaffirmed labour market resilience, with 172,000 positions added against a forecast of 85,000, pushing back expectations of a near-term Fed rate cut. In this article we have prepared an analysis of the […]
14 min
Investor attention this week centres on Eurozone inflation, the state of the Australian economy and, above all, the US labour market. The dollar retains solid support as markets price in the Fed holding rates steady through year-end, with an additional hike remaining on the table if inflation stays firm and labour market conditions hold up. […]