The dollar's direction this week comes down to one release. Core PCE, the inflation gauge the Fed watches most closely, arrives on Wednesday alongside the second estimate of Q2 GDP. Economists expect the monthly figure to accelerate to 0.3% after June's reading of just 0.1%, and that gap is what markets will trade.
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18 min
Meta is under pressure from a major court case in California. If the outcome touches the algorithms and the advertising model behind Facebook and Instagram, META shares have room to slide toward 440 USD. Below is the trade setup, the levels that confirm it, and the metrics that will show whether the pressure is reaching the business.
15 min
Another August week passed relatively calmly after the series of strong moves at the start of the month. Tension in the Middle East made itself felt again, though everything paused by the end of the week, which reduced the geopolitical premium in oil prices. At the same time investors kept assessing the condition of the American economy after fresh signals from the labour market and the July inflation data.
23 min
Gold Fed rate hike bets have been the single biggest weight on the metal all year, and over one week in August that weight came off. US payrolls fell by 23,000 in July when the market was looking for a gain of about 80,000, and consumer price inflation then slowed to 3.4%. The implied odds of a September rate increase have dropped to around 40%, from roughly two thirds at the start of the month. Gold has recovered more than 430 USD from its June low and now trades at 4,373 USD, just under the 200-day moving average it lost in June.
21 min
Apple CXMT memory chips are now in testing, and that one supply chain change sits at the centre of this AAPL stock forecast. Memory prices are rising fast enough to squeeze the gross margin on every iPhone and Mac the company builds. Apple's own guidance for the September quarter came in below what the market expected, and the share price fell more than 7% after it was published. A breakout above resistance at 317 USD is the level that turns this story into a trade.
18 min
Last week returned geopolitics to market pricing. Developments in the Middle East periodically added a risk premium to energy prices, although tension eased by Friday. Another headline event was the coordinated action by Japan and the United States in support of the yen, after which USD/JPY dropped sharply away from its 40-year high. At the same time, the US labour market delivered fresh signs of cooling: July Non-Farm Payrolls came in below expectations and earlier readings were revised down, which widened expectations for a softer Fed policy path.
15 min
ExxonMobil doubled its net profit and more than tripled its free cash flow as oil prices climbed. A local correction is possible after such a strong run, yet a breakout above 158 USD could open the way for XOM shares to reach 177 USD.
15 min
The final week of July delivered high volatility and a clear change of drivers. Markets priced in several factors at once: renewed tension in the Middle East, the start of the US corporate earnings season and firm rhetoric from the Federal Reserve, a combination that pushed stock indices into a correction. The currency market added a second source of movement. The Japanese yen strengthened sharply on the likelihood of official intervention, which amplified swings in USD/JPY and forced a broad reassessment of dollar positions.
21 min
NVIDIA is taking on a second job. Alongside selling AI accelerators, the company is now in talks to financially guarantee the data centre that will buy them. Investors sold NVDA shares by 5% on the news, and the daily chart has arrived at a level that decides the next move: support at 195 USD. A confirmed close below it opens the way toward 150 USD.
12 min
Oil prices climbed last week as tensions around the Middle East intensified, with renewed friction near the Strait of Hormuz adding an extra risk premium to commodity markets and lifting volatility across global assets. At the same time, the start of the US corporate earnings season put pressure on stock indices, as investors began locking in profits after the second-quarter rally. The US dollar has held steady through this backdrop, and major currency pairs remain confined to familiar ranges. The week ahead brings the Federal Reserve's rate decision, a fresh batch of Japanese data, the Bank of England's meeting and a heavy block of US macro releases, giving traders plenty to react to across FX, stocks and bonds.
16 min
Boeing has received two important positive signals this week. First, the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) expects to certify the Boeing 737 MAX 7 and 737 MAX 10 soon. Second, SMBC Aviation Capital, one of the world's largest aircraft leasing companies, has ordered 100 aircraft from the 737 MAX family.
13 min
Last week showed that markets are gradually moving past individual geopolitical headlines. Despite another exchange of strikes in the Middle East and nerves around the Strait of Hormuz, the oil sector spent most of the week in a narrow range. Investors are increasingly weighing the actual probability of supply disruption rather than the statements themselves, and that probability remains low for now.
15 min
The past week ended without fresh signals from the Federal Reserve. Minutes from the June meeting confirmed the regulator's cautious stance: most Fed officials still consider it premature to discuss rate cuts and want to see more convincing evidence that inflation is slowing. The message supported the dollar and led the market to fully abandon expectations of rapid policy easing.
16 min
Five events will drive currencies, indices and oil this week, and each one comes with a clear trading scenario. SpaceX joins the Nasdaq-100 on Tuesday, the FOMC minutes land on Wednesday, China reports inflation on Thursday, Canada publishes jobs data on Friday, and the US-Iran talks keep the oil market on alert every single day. Below you will find the full calendar, the levels that matter for the S&P 500, EUR/USD, Brent, AUD/USD and CAD/JPY, and a ready-made plan for every release, so you are informed in advance what can happen and how to act when the numbers hit the screen.
18 min
NVIDIA has signed an agreement with Firmus to supply up to 170,000 AI chips for a major data centre in Indonesia. The deal widens NVIDIA's customer base, adds a stream of cloud computing income, and points to a new growth model for the company. The base-case forecast for NVDA stock sees a bounce off support at 195 USD and a move toward 280 USD.