usd/cad forecast

11 posts

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Analysis
16 min

Market Week Ahead (August 31 – September 4): Non-Farm Payrolls Forecast Decides the Dollar's Course

August closed on a firm note for US stocks, carried by the first corporate reports of the season. Attention now swings back to the macro calendar, and the Non-Farm Payrolls forecast on Friday is what this week comes down to. Before it, the United States reports JOLTS job openings and the ISM Manufacturing PMI on Tuesday, Australia publishes second-quarter GDP on Wednesday, and the Bank of Canada announces its rate decision the same day.

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Analysis
16 min

Market Week Ahead (August 24 – 28): Core PCE Set to Test Fed Rate Expectations

The dollar's direction this week comes down to one release. Core PCE, the inflation gauge the Fed watches most closely, arrives on Wednesday alongside the second estimate of Q2 GDP. Economists expect the monthly figure to accelerate to 0.3% after June's reading of just 0.1%, and that gap is what markets will trade.

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Analysis
15 min

Market Week Ahead (August 3 – 7): Payrolls, China Trade and the Yen to Set the Dollar's Course

The final week of July delivered high volatility and a clear change of drivers. Markets priced in several factors at once: renewed tension in the Middle East, the start of the US corporate earnings season and firm rhetoric from the Federal Reserve, a combination that pushed stock indices into a correction. The currency market added a second source of movement. The Japanese yen strengthened sharply on the likelihood of official intervention, which amplified swings in USD/JPY and forced a broad reassessment of dollar positions.

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Analysis
13 min

Market Week Ahead (July 20–24): Four Tests for the World's Central Banks

Last week showed that markets are gradually moving past individual geopolitical headlines. Despite another exchange of strikes in the Middle East and nerves around the Strait of Hormuz, the oil sector spent most of the week in a narrow range. Investors are increasingly weighing the actual probability of supply disruption rather than the statements themselves, and that probability remains low for now.

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Analysis
13 min

Market Week Ahead (June 22–26): Will the USD Pass June's Final Test?

Markets enter the final week of June under elevated uncertainty, shaped by a hawkish Fed and renewed volatility in oil. The Fed held rates at 3.75% last week, but Chair Warsh's commentary and the updated projections sent a clear message: rates will stay restrictive for as long as the inflation outlook demands. Oil added its own layer of turbulence, first falling sharply on reports of a potential US-Iran deal, then recovering as news of a renewed Ormuz Strait closure reignited supply concerns. In this article we have prepared an analysis of the week's key data releases: from Canada's CPI on Monday to the final US GDP and Core PCE on Thursday, with Australia's inflation and the Fed's annual bank stress tests in between. Inside, you'll find technical reference points, key price levels and the latest market sentiment across leading assets.

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