Jobs Report Friday and US Midterm Elections: Market Week Ahead (November 2 – 6)
November opens with two events that can shift sentiment across global markets: the US midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3, and the October jobs report Friday, November 6, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The forecast calls for 40,000 new jobs after 29,000 in September, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.2%. Around the two events come the ISM PMIs, JOLTS job openings and the RBA and Bank of England decisions. This issue covers US 500, AUD/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/USD and BTC/USD.
After last week's central bank meetings, attention turns to political risk, two rate decisions and the health of the US economy. The balance of power in Congress and further signs of a cooling labour market will shape expectations for fiscal policy, bond yields and the next steps of the Federal Reserve (Fed).
Where the Market Stands Going Into the Week
US 500 trades near 7,594.5 in a pullback toward its rising trendline. EUR/USD stays under pressure near 1.1155 while it tries to bounce from local lows. GBP/USD is recovering at 1.3384 after a drop to 1.3200. AUD/USD, at 0.7030, is rising in a correction, but the momentum is weakening ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia decision. Bitcoin is down from the September high near 87,400 USD and tests support around 76,300 USD, with BTC/USD at 78,053 USD.
The week brings five trading themes: the US elections and US 500, the jobs report and EUR/USD, the RBA decision and AUD/USD, the Bank of England meeting and GBP/USD, and Bitcoin in the context of political risk and US employment. All five charts below are daily.
Key Events of the Week
| Date | Event | Instruments | Importance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, Nov 2 | China RatingDog manufacturing PMI (October) | AUD/USD | ●● Medium |
| Mon, Nov 2 | US ISM manufacturing PMI (October) | US 500, EUR/USD | ●●● High |
| Tue, Nov 3 | Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision | AUD/USD | ●●● High |
| Tue, Nov 3 | US midterm elections | US 500, BTC/USD, US dollar | ●●● High |
| Tue, Nov 3 | US JOLTS job openings | EUR/USD, US 500 | ●●● High |
| Wed, Nov 4 | US ISM services PMI (October) | EUR/USD, US 500 | ●●● High |
| Thu, Nov 5 | Bank of England rate decision | GBP/USD | ●●● High |
| Fri, Nov 6 | US Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment rate | EUR/USD, US 500, BTC/USD | ●●● High |
| Fri, Nov 6 | Canada unemployment rate and Ivey PMI | USD/CAD | ●●● High |
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3
Nov
Cash Rate, Forecast
4.85%
Previous
4.60%
China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (Mon, Nov 2), Forecast
52.0
Previous
52.1
Why It Matters
The forecast calls for the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise its rate by 25 basis points to 4.85% from 4.60%. For AUD/USD, the decision matters together with the bank's view of inflation risks and the outlook for policy. A hike with firm rhetoric would support the Australian dollar. If the bank signals that more tightening is unlikely, the market could read the decision as the end of the current cycle. Chinese data adds to the picture: on Monday, the RatingDog manufacturing PMI for October is seen at 52.0 after 52.1. Given Australia's trade ties with China, the pulse of Chinese industry stays an important factor for the Australian dollar.
Market Reaction
A hike with firm comments could lift AUD/USD toward the top of its current range. The same tone would support the Australian dollar against the yen in AUD/JPY while risk appetite holds. For Australian stocks, higher rates would weigh on sectors that depend on funding costs.
Market Sentiment
The 0.7060 to 0.7070 ceiling decides the week for AUD/USD, now at 0.7030 after a recovery from the October low around 0.6900. The price holds above the middle Bollinger Band and sits just under that range edge. The MACD main line, near -0.0001, is slightly below zero but above its signal line near -0.0013, so momentum has improved after the earlier decline. The stochastic has dropped to 53.05 against a signal line at 62.75 and warns that the short-term rise is slowing. The plan is a buy only after a hold above 0.7070, with the next target at 0.7190. A drop below 0.6990 would sharply lower the chance of further recovery and shift attention to support at 0.6915.
Key Levels and Trade Parameters — AUD/USD
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Resistance | 0.7070 / 0.7190 |
| Support | 0.6990 / 0.6915 |
| Entry, Buy Stop | 0.7070 |
| Stop loss | 0.6990 |
| Take profit | 0.7190 |
| Risk to reward | 1:1.5 |
3
Nov
House of Representatives, Seats Up
435
Senate, Seats Up
35
Why It Matters
On November 3, Americans elect a new House of Representatives and part of the Senate: all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats, two of them special elections. The result sets the balance of power for the rest of the presidential term. For financial markets, the key question is how freely the administration can pursue budget, tax and trade policy. Single-party control of the White House and Congress could raise the odds of large initiatives, including changes to taxes and public spending. A divided Congress could narrow the room for new decisions and, at the same time, lower the risk of sharp shifts in economic policy. We will also watch what the result means for the budget deficit, government borrowing and Treasury yields. The first reaction can be emotional: early results arrive after the polls close, and the final split of some districts can take extra time.
Market Reaction
US 500: less political uncertainty would support stocks, while higher expectations for government spending and bond yields could pull the other way. US dollar: the reaction depends on expectations for fiscal policy, growth and interest rates. BTC/USD: higher risk appetite and favourable expectations for digital asset regulation could support Bitcoin, while political uncertainty and a sell-off in risk assets could add pressure.
Market Sentiment
On the daily chart, US 500 trades near 7,594.5 after another decline from the 7,750 to 7,850 area. The price has dropped to the lower Bollinger Band, and the rising trendline near 7,535 to 7,550 is the last important support for the medium-term bullish case. The MACD main line sits at -12.45 against a signal line at -0.30, and the negative histogram confirms that sellers lead and upward momentum is fading. The stochastic is neutral at 44.20 and 56.87 with the fast line below the slow one, so short-term pressure persists without an oversold reading. The base scenario is a continued correction after a break of 7,580 with a target of 7,385. A hold above 7,710 weakens the bearish signal, and a return to 7,850 would bring back the conditions for the uptrend.
Key Levels and Trade Parameters — US 500
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Resistance | 7710 / 7850 |
| Support | 7580 / 7535 / 7385 |
| Entry, Sell Stop | 7580 |
| Stop loss | 7710 |
| Take profit | 7385 |
| Risk to reward | 1:1.5 |
5
Nov
Bank Rate, Forecast
4.00%
Previous
3.75%
Why It Matters
The Bank of England meets amid uncertainty over inflation and the outlook for the British economy. The forecast calls for a 25 basis point hike to 4.00% from 3.75%. For sterling, the bank's view of further inflation risks and the strength of growth decides the reaction. Even an expected hike may give the pound little support if the bank signals a possible pause. Expectations for British fiscal policy and government borrowing also matter, and we will watch whether monetary and fiscal policy can hold investor confidence in British assets.
Market Reaction
If the vote split shows support for a pause, GBP/USD could give back its rebound even after a hike. A firm majority for further tightening would help the pound. A gap between the tone of the Bank of England and the European Central Bank (ECB) can add volatility to EUR/GBP.
Market Sentiment
GBP/USD trades near 1.3384 after a rebound from the 1.3200 to 1.3240 area. The price is back above the middle Bollinger Band, and the latest sessions show an attempt to build a local upward move. The MACD has crossed above its signal line and turned positive, and the positive histogram confirms better short-term momentum. The stochastic reads 59.76 and 41.26 with the fast line above the slow one, which supports further recovery. The base scenario is continued growth after a break of 1.3410 toward 1.3550. A hold below 1.3320 would weaken the upward impulse, and a decline to 1.3240 would return attention to the bottom of the range.
Key Levels and Trade Parameters — GBP/USD
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Resistance | 1.3410 / 1.3550 / 1.3690 |
| Support | 1.3320 / 1.3240 / 1.3136 |
| Entry, Buy Stop | 1.3410 |
| Stop loss | 1.3320 |
| Take profit | 1.3550 |
| Risk to reward | 1:1.6 |
6
Nov
Non-Farm Payrolls (Fri, Nov 6), Forecast
40K
Previous
29K
Unemployment Rate (Fri, Nov 6), Forecast
4.2%
Previous
4.2%
JOLTS Job Openings (Tue, Nov 3), Forecast
7.06M
Previous
7.079M
ISM Services PMI (Wed, Nov 4), Forecast
54.5
Previous
54.9
Why It Matters
The jobs report Friday, the nonfarm payrolls (NFP) release, is the main macro event of the week. According to the official calendar of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the October data is due on November 6 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. In September the US economy added only 29,000 jobs outside agriculture, and unemployment stood at 4.2%. The forecast calls for 40,000 new jobs with unemployment unchanged. Even if it comes true, job creation stays comparatively weak. Investors get more information earlier in the week: JOLTS job openings on Tuesday are seen at 7.06 million after 7.079 million, and the ISM services PMI on Wednesday at 54.5 after 54.9. Together these releases will show whether the slowdown in hiring is temporary or a sign of longer cooling in the labour market.
Market Reaction
A strong report with lower unemployment would support the dollar and weigh on EUR/USD. A weaker report would lower Treasury yields and could let EUR/USD recover. For US 500, moderately strong hiring can support growth expectations, while a very strong report would lift bond yields and limit gains in stocks. For BTC/USD, a weak report can raise hopes of easier Fed policy, but a sharp deterioration in jobs also widens the risk of a sell-off in volatile assets.
What a Surprise Means
Stronger report: more than 40K jobs, lower unemployment
US dollar: supported, with Treasury yields moving up.
EUR/USD: under more pressure.
US 500: moderately strong hiring supports growth expectations, a very strong report lifts bond yields and limits gains in stocks.
Weaker report: fewer than 40K jobs, higher unemployment
Treasury yields: lower.
EUR/USD: room to recover.
BTC/USD: hopes of easier Fed policy can help, but a sharp deterioration in jobs widens the risk of a sell-off in volatile assets.
Market Sentiment
EUR/USD sits near 1.1155 after a long decline from the August highs. The price stays below the middle Bollinger Band, and a series of lower highs confirms the main downtrend. The MACD is negative, with the main line near -0.0058 above the signal line near -0.0062, so the downward momentum is easing gradually. That hints at a corrective rebound but does not confirm a change of trend. The stochastic reads 41.68 and 27.97: the fast line has climbed above the slow one after leaving the oversold zone, which raises the odds of a short bounce. While EUR/USD stays below 1.1220, sellers keep the edge. The working scenario is a renewed decline after a break of 1.1130 toward 1.0995. A hold above 1.1220 cancels the nearest sell signal and opens a recovery toward 1.1315.
Key Levels and Trade Parameters — EUR/USD
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Resistance | 1.1220 / 1.1315 |
| Support | 1.1130 / 1.1050 / 1.0995 |
| Entry, Sell Stop | 1.1130 |
| Stop loss | 1.1220 |
| Take profit | 1.0995 |
| Risk to reward | 1:1.5 |
3 & 6
Nov
BTC/USD, Chart Price
78,053 USD
September High
87,388 USD
Why It Matters
Bitcoin enters November about 11% below its September high near 87,400 USD. The price formed a series of lower highs and returned to the 78,000 USD area. Two events matter for BTC/USD this week. The first is the US midterm elections, whose results can influence expectations for digital asset regulation and the general appetite for risk. The second is Friday's jobs report, which can change forecasts for interest rates and US bond yields. BTC stays sensitive to global liquidity and shifts in risk appetite. Softer expectations for the Fed can support crypto, but the effect is not automatic: if the economic outlook worsens sharply, investors can cut positions in stocks and digital assets together. The political factor works in both directions too. The election can change expectations for crypto legislation. Concrete regulatory steps and the reaction of the wider financial market will decide the move in Bitcoin.
Market Reaction
A positive reaction to the election results and lower bond yields may help a recovery in BTC/USD. Firm expectations for the Fed and weaker risk appetite would speed up the decline. A break of technical support near 76,300 USD could add to selling whatever the first political reaction is.
Market Sentiment
BTC/USD holds near 78,053 USD after a decline from resistance at 87,388 USD. The price sits below the middle Bollinger Band and has come close to the lower edge of the range, which confirms bearish pressure. The MACD main line at about -1,106.79 is below its signal line at -600.19, and the histogram has moved into negative territory, so the downward impulse is getting stronger. The stochastic is near the oversold zone at 21.54 and 22.70. The fast line is slightly below the slow one, so there is no convincing reversal signal yet, though the reading raises the odds of short-term bounces. The downside scenario is a continued decline after a break of support at 76,316 USD with a target of 70,750 USD. A hold above 79,000 USD weakens the nearest bearish signal, and a return above 81,400 USD would be the first sign of a steadier recovery.
Key Levels and Trade Parameters — BTC/USD
| Parameter | Value (USD) |
|---|---|
| Resistance | 79,000 / 81,400 / 87,388 |
| Support | 76,316 / 73,360 / 70,750 |
| Entry, Sell Stop | 76,250 |
| Stop loss | 79,000 |
| Take profit | 70,750 |
| Risk to reward | 1:2.0 |
What Else to Watch
On Monday, the US ISM manufacturing PMI is expected at 54.7 after 54.5, a read on the strength of industry before the jobs report. On Wednesday, preliminary eurozone inflation for October is seen at 3.8% year on year, unchanged, which can shape expectations for the ECB. Australia's trade balance on Thursday is forecast at a surplus of 0.7 billion Australian dollars after 0.495 billion. On Friday, Canada publishes its unemployment rate, seen at 6.5% and unchanged, together with the Ivey PMI at 57.5 after 58.2, and both can add volatility to USD/CAD. The University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment index also comes out on Friday, with a forecast of 47.0 after 48.0, and a weak reading would raise concern about US consumer demand.
Track the forecast and the actual figure for each release, since the gap between consensus and the outcome is what tends to move prices the most. Learn more about how to read the economic calendar and trade the news.
Conclusion
The week of November 2 to 6 combines political and economic risks that can change the direction of global markets. The US midterm elections set the balance of power in Congress, and the jobs report Friday shows how resilient the US labour market is after a weak September. A break of 7,580 in US 500 sets up a decline toward 7,385, and a hold above 7,710 weakens it. In EUR/USD, a break of 1.1130 opens the way to 1.0995, and a hold above 1.1220 cancels the signal.
AUD/USD and GBP/USD show signs of recovery, and their next move depends on the RBA and the Bank of England: a hold above 0.7070 targets 0.7190, and a break of 1.3410 targets 1.3550. Bitcoin sits on support at 76,316 USD, and a break lower points to 70,750 USD. The main risk of the week is the mix of political uncertainty and surprises in US data, so each scenario needs a confirmed break first, because the first reaction to the election and to the jobs report can reverse quickly.
FAQ
When are the 2026 US midterm elections?
The midterm elections take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Americans elect all 435 members of the House of Representatives and 35 Senate seats, two of them in special elections. Early results arrive after the polls close, but the final count in some districts can take longer.
How can the midterm elections affect the stock market?
Markets will weigh the prospects for tax, budget and trade policy. A divided Congress can limit large decisions, while single-party control can raise the odds of the administration's initiatives. The direction of stocks depends on what investors see for the economy and corporate earnings.
What time is the jobs report on Friday, November 6?
The October Non-Farm Payrolls report is due on Friday, November 6, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The forecast calls for 40,000 new jobs after 29,000 in September, with unemployment unchanged at 4.2%.
How can Non-Farm Payrolls affect EUR/USD?
A strong report can support the dollar, especially if it raises expectations for firm Fed policy. Weaker data can lower US bond yields and help EUR/USD recover, though the reaction also depends on general risk appetite.
Why is Bitcoin in this week's forecast?
BTC is sensitive to expectations for interest rates, liquidity and digital asset regulation. The midterm elections and the jobs report can affect all three this week. The key technical support for BTC/USD is the 76,316 USD area.
Which levels matter most this week?
For US 500, the main trigger for a decline is 7,580, for EUR/USD it is 1.1130, and for BTC/USD it is a break below 76,316 USD support, with the sell stop at 76,250 USD. For AUD/USD, a hold above 0.7070 would confirm further growth, and for GBP/USD a break of 1.3410 would do the same.
Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author's independent analysis and reflect their personal opinion. These articles should not be construed as trading recommendations or a call to action. The authors and RoboForex accept no responsibility for the results of any trades made on the basis of these recommendations and reviews. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading stocks and CFDs involves a high risk of capital loss.
