After a week of decisions from the world's largest central banks, the calendar turns quieter, and attention moves to how fast the global economy is growing. The Trump Xi summit on Thursday is the main event: Donald Trump is expected to host Xi Jinping in Washington, and anything the two leaders say about trade, export restrictions and economic cooperation will shape risk appetite for the rest of September.
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17 min
September's busiest week puts three of the world's largest central banks on the calendar at once. The Fed rate decision comes first on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of England on Thursday and the Bank of Japan on Friday, and together they will set expectations for interest rates, bond yields and the major currencies going into autumn.
16 min
The first week of September settled nothing. The US labour market report showed employment holding up while the pace of hiring slows, which left the Fed's next step exactly where it was. The dollar stayed strong and stock indices finished the week without a clear idea. This week hands the market two answers instead: the ECB decides on Thursday, and the US CPI forecast arrives on Friday as the last major number before the Fed meets in September.
15 min
Another August week passed relatively calmly after the series of strong moves at the start of the month. Tension in the Middle East made itself felt again, though everything paused by the end of the week, which reduced the geopolitical premium in oil prices. At the same time investors kept assessing the condition of the American economy after fresh signals from the labour market and the July inflation data.
18 min
Last week returned geopolitics to market pricing. Developments in the Middle East periodically added a risk premium to energy prices, although tension eased by Friday. Another headline event was the coordinated action by Japan and the United States in support of the yen, after which USD/JPY dropped sharply away from its 40-year high. At the same time, the US labour market delivered fresh signs of cooling: July Non-Farm Payrolls came in below expectations and earlier readings were revised down, which widened expectations for a softer Fed policy path.
13 min
Last week showed that markets are gradually moving past individual geopolitical headlines. Despite another exchange of strikes in the Middle East and nerves around the Strait of Hormuz, the oil sector spent most of the week in a narrow range. Investors are increasingly weighing the actual probability of supply disruption rather than the statements themselves, and that probability remains low for now.
9 min
Read the latest foreign currency trading forecast for 2024. Find out how the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and other currency pairs could change in 2024.
7 min
Read the latest forecast for GBP/USD for 2023-2024. Learn GBP/USD technical and fundamental analysis. Find out what the medium and long-term prospects are for this currency pair.
12 min
Will EUR/USD grow in 2023 and beyond? In this article we'll access trends and provide you with EUR/USD forecast for short-term and long-term.
5 min
The discussions of Brexit and the reactions of the pound have long been most vivid. The problem seemed on the verge of solving but alas, the decision is postponed again. The pound is nervous because of Brexit complications, and its perspectives are directly connected to the upcoming end of the drama.