ISM Services PMI and Japan consumer confidence on Monday, FOMC minutes on Wednesday and Canada's jobs report on Friday. What each release could mean for US 30, EUR/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CAD.
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15 min
The RBA rate decision on Tuesday, US Core PCE on Wednesday, Japan's Tankan on Thursday and Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. What each release could mean for AUD/USD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY and the US 500.
17 min
September's busiest week puts three of the world's largest central banks on the calendar at once. The Fed rate decision comes first on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of England on Thursday and the Bank of Japan on Friday, and together they will set expectations for interest rates, bond yields and the major currencies going into autumn.
16 min
The first week of September settled nothing. The US labour market report showed employment holding up while the pace of hiring slows, which left the Fed's next step exactly where it was. The dollar stayed strong and stock indices finished the week without a clear idea. This week hands the market two answers instead: the ECB decides on Thursday, and the US CPI forecast arrives on Friday as the last major number before the Fed meets in September.
16 min
August closed on a firm note for US stocks, carried by the first corporate reports of the season. Attention now swings back to the macro calendar, and the Non-Farm Payrolls forecast on Friday is what this week comes down to. Before it, the United States reports JOLTS job openings and the ISM Manufacturing PMI on Tuesday, Australia publishes second-quarter GDP on Wednesday, and the Bank of Canada announces its rate decision the same day.
16 min
The dollar's direction this week comes down to one release. Core PCE, the inflation gauge the Fed watches most closely, arrives on Wednesday alongside the second estimate of Q2 GDP. Economists expect the monthly figure to accelerate to 0.3% after June's reading of just 0.1%, and that gap is what markets will trade.
15 min
Another August week passed relatively calmly after the series of strong moves at the start of the month. Tension in the Middle East made itself felt again, though everything paused by the end of the week, which reduced the geopolitical premium in oil prices. At the same time investors kept assessing the condition of the American economy after fresh signals from the labour market and the July inflation data.
18 min
Last week returned geopolitics to market pricing. Developments in the Middle East periodically added a risk premium to energy prices, although tension eased by Friday. Another headline event was the coordinated action by Japan and the United States in support of the yen, after which USD/JPY dropped sharply away from its 40-year high. At the same time, the US labour market delivered fresh signs of cooling: July Non-Farm Payrolls came in below expectations and earlier readings were revised down, which widened expectations for a softer Fed policy path.
15 min
The final week of July delivered high volatility and a clear change of drivers. Markets priced in several factors at once: renewed tension in the Middle East, the start of the US corporate earnings season and firm rhetoric from the Federal Reserve, a combination that pushed stock indices into a correction. The currency market added a second source of movement. The Japanese yen strengthened sharply on the likelihood of official intervention, which amplified swings in USD/JPY and forced a broad reassessment of dollar positions.
12 min
Oil prices climbed last week as tensions around the Middle East intensified, with renewed friction near the Strait of Hormuz adding an extra risk premium to commodity markets and lifting volatility across global assets. At the same time, the start of the US corporate earnings season put pressure on stock indices, as investors began locking in profits after the second-quarter rally. The US dollar has held steady through this backdrop, and major currency pairs remain confined to familiar ranges. The week ahead brings the Federal Reserve's rate decision, a fresh batch of Japanese data, the Bank of England's meeting and a heavy block of US macro releases, giving traders plenty to react to across FX, stocks and bonds.
13 min
Last week showed that markets are gradually moving past individual geopolitical headlines. Despite another exchange of strikes in the Middle East and nerves around the Strait of Hormuz, the oil sector spent most of the week in a narrow range. Investors are increasingly weighing the actual probability of supply disruption rather than the statements themselves, and that probability remains low for now.
13 min
Markets enter the final week of June under elevated uncertainty, shaped by a hawkish Fed and renewed volatility in oil. The Fed held rates at 3.75% last week, but Chair Warsh's commentary and the updated projections sent a clear message: rates will stay restrictive for as long as the inflation outlook demands. Oil added its own layer of turbulence, first falling sharply on reports of a potential US-Iran deal, then recovering as news of a renewed Ormuz Strait closure reignited supply concerns. In this article we have prepared an analysis of the week's key data releases: from Canada's CPI on Monday to the final US GDP and Core PCE on Thursday, with Australia's inflation and the Fed's annual bank stress tests in between. Inside, you'll find technical reference points, key price levels and the latest market sentiment across leading assets.
9 min
Read the latest foreign currency trading forecast for 2024. Find out how the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and other currency pairs could change in 2024.
12 min
Will EUR/USD grow in 2023 and beyond? In this article we'll access trends and provide you with EUR/USD forecast for short-term and long-term.
6 min
It is quite possible that 2021 will not be the most comfortable year for the dollar for several reasons. Now let us discuss things in due order.