EUR takes a pause. Overview for 28.11.2023

The primary currency pair paused on Tuesday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0947.

The DXY dollar index is concluding its most challenging month in 2023. This is linked to market confidence that the Federal Reserve has completed its stringent monetary policy cycle and is prepared to maintain high rates. There is growing confidence in the foreign exchange market that rates could begin falling in the first half of 2024.

In this context, the dollar itself is softening, losing ground. However, it is crucial not to lose vigilance: as soon as everyone is convinced that the rates will be lowered, the Fed will find something to say.

According to CME FedWatch monitoring, futures suggest a softening of the Fed’s credit and monetary policy in March with a probability of 23%. By May, the likelihood is expected to reach 50%.

Yesterday's report on newly constructed home sales in the US for October was disappointing: the indicator dropped to 0.68 million from the previous 0.76 million. Today, Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, will deliver a speech, and the US will present the CCI for November from the Conference Board.